Massoc. E.C and C. Lechner (2026). Geopolitics and its Impact on European Banking. St. Gallen Center for Geopolitics and Corporate Strategy, White Paper Series, Issue 1, pp 1-17 (September 2026)
Abstract: This white paper examines how geopolitical tensions are reshaping European banking. It identifies two main channels of change: shifts in market conditions, including trade fragmentation, energy security, industrial competition and defence financing; and the growing geopolitical dimension of financial regulation and supervision. It then examines how European banks are adapting through changes in geographic exposure, consolidation, diversification into strategic sectors and technological transformation. The paper concludes by identifying strategic implications for banks, including integrating geopolitics across risk and strategy, strengthening decision intelligence, engaging with public authorities, developing partnerships with public financial institutions, maintaining strategic stability and turning geopolitical expertise into a client capability.
Grünbichler, A. (2026). Pricing Geopolitical Risk A Market-Based Framework for Measuring and Hedging a Structural Risk. St. Gallen Center for Geopolitics and Corporate Strategy, White Paper Series, Issue 2, (September 2026)
Summary: Geopolitical risk is no longer a shock that fades between crises. It has become a lasting feature of the financial environment, and supervisors now expect banks to measure it. The European Central Bank, for example, published the results of a 2026 stress test in July 2026. In it, 110 banks had to identify the geopolitical events that would cost them 300 basis points of core capital. The obvious follow-up question is how likely such an event is and what it would cost to insure against it. This paper shows that the pricing methods behind futures and options on the VIX volatility index can be applied to a widely used index of geopolitical tension.
Any company exposed to energy prices, trade routes, sanctions, or a particular region has no market signal today for what geopolitical risk costs. A traded price would give management a transparent benchmark for scenario planning and investment decisions. It would also show how lenders price this risk into credit. Companies with little exposure may be paying too much today, while heavily exposed ones may be paying too little.
This CGCS White Paper is the accessible companion to the author’s technical working paper „Pricing Geopolitical Risk“ (Grünbichler, 2026), which sets out the full model, estimation, and proofs (available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=6772178).
Keywords: geopolitical risk, risk pricing, corporate risk management, scenario planning, hedging, stress testing, bank supervision, ECB
Moser, R. (2026). Decision Intelligence for a Geopolitical Age How Delphi Studies, Open-Source Intelligence, and LLM-Enabled Strategy Workflows Help Firms Respond to Geopolitical Disruption. St. Gallen Center for Geopolitics and Corporate Strategy, White Paper Series, Issue 3, (September 2026)
Abstract: This white paper examines how firms can strengthen their decision-making capabilities in an era of rapid geopolitical disruption. It introduces a Decision Intelligence Platform that combines three complementary layers: open-source intelligence (OSINT) for detecting relevant geopolitical signals; structured Delphi expert panels for assessing their implications; and LLM-enabled workflows for translating expert judgment into concrete business consequences. The paper illustrates how this approach can support both long-term strategic foresight and rapid responses to geopolitical events. It concludes by identifying five implications for executives: building intelligence infrastructure in advance, treating expert disagreement as valuable information, keeping AI downstream of human judgment, developing cross-functional expert networks and establishing longitudinal baselines of structured expert judgment.
Beez, F. (2026). “Corporate Diplomacy Management” as a Competitive Advantage in Challenging Times. St. Gallen Center for Geopolitics and Corporate Strategy, White Paper Series, Issue 4, (September 2026)
Abstract: This white paper examines the growing importance of Corporate Diplomacy in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical environment. It argues that Corporate Diplomacy has evolved from a practice associated primarily with large multinational corporations into a strategic management capability increasingly relevant to medium-sized firms. Rising defence spending, greater private-sector involvement in economic and foreign policy, regulatory requirements and hybrid threats are reinforcing this shift. The paper outlines how companies can integrate Corporate Diplomacy into their strategy through geopolitical risk assessment, stakeholder analysis, issue monitoring and strategic political communication, helping them manage risks while identifying new business opportunities.